"The only thing that
is certain about the future is its uncertainty."
Although there is some truth to this statement, companies,
organizations and nations must nevertheless seek to envisage what the future
might bring - in six months, a year, or even ten years. While the immediate
future is often already well mapped out, the long-range perspective offers
greater freedom of choice. Effective processes and methods for the continuous
assessment of long-term technological development and technical applications
are crucial, both for the formulation of Sweden's growth policies and the
future prospects of Swedish companies and organizations.
Swedish Technology Foresight is a national project that seeks to bring
together a large number of players from the knowledge community to discuss
the best way of promoting long-term interplay between technical, economic
and social processes. The project has been run by the Royal Swedish Academy
of Engineering Sciences (IVA), the Swedish National Board for Industrial
and Technical Development (NUTEK), the Swedish Foundation for Strategic
Research and the Federation of Swedish Industries. It was conducted
in close cooperation with the government, companies, public agencies and
other interested parties.
Swedish Technology Foresight - aims and
objectives
The Technology Foresight project aimed to create insights and visions
about technological development in the long term (10 to 20 years) in order
to identify worthwhile strategies in education, research and development
to promote the development of Swedish society.
Objectives:
- To strengthen a futures-oriented approach in companies and organizations
- To identify areas of expertise with potential for growth and renewal
in Sweden
- To compile information and design processes for identifying high-priority
areas in which Sweden should build expertise
Interest groups support the organization
Swedish Technology Foresight was headed by a Steering Committee.
Eight panels, each comprising up to 15 experts with different perspectives,
formed the core of the Technology Foresight project. An Advisory Committee
composed of representatives of different organizations ensureed that vital
aspects of Swedish community life were integrated into the work of the
Technology Foresight project.
Technology Foresight areas
- Health, medicine and care
Biosciences, biotechnology, medical technology, nursing
- Biological natural resources Forestry and agriculture, water use,
food processing, pulp and paper, wood products, biofuels
- Society's infrastructure
Buildings and other facilities, city planning, transportation systems,
logistics, distribution, regional development
- Production systems
Applied manufacturing technology, industrial manufacturing systems and
vehicular engineering
- Information and communications systems
Hardware and software development, tele- and radio communications, computer
networks, databases
- Materials and materials flows in the community
Functional materials, structural materials, extraction and process engineering,
recycling processes, chemical engineering
- Service industries
Media, leisure, distributive trades, insurance and financial services
- Education and learning
Lifelong learning, childhood and youth education, higher education,
advanced and continuing education
A multidisciplinary, lateral approach
In addition to discussing aspects of common interest to all project
areas, each panel has also focused on area-specific issues. Ecology and
environmental issues will lead to environmental impact assessments in
each area. Both customer and market demands and costs have a decisive
influence on developments. Globalization and employment issues was also
discussed. Values and attitudes affect the development, diffusion and
use of new technology, and needed to be analyzed.
A process without end
Naturally, Technology Foresight cannot predict the future, but
it can improve preparedness for future developments and influence investments
in production and the dissemination of knowledge. However, the process
of creating and conducting a futures-oriented project of this type is
in itself as important as the final assessment of technological developments.
A successful project is in fact a process that has no end, providing as
it does a way of keeping up with events in the world at large.
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